The first pitch is a hittable four-seam fastball (FF), but it has a negative run value because it still has a 75.2% chance of being a strike owed largely to the 55% likelihood that Carter takes it.

The 0-1 pitch is a four-seam fastball (FF) that misses its location too high to induce a swing. The only way this pitch is a strike is if Carter swings at it, which will only happen 9.4% of the time. Carter's reaction should be noted as he turned to avoid getting hit despite the ball being located over the middle of the plate.

This 1-1 changeup (CH) has a 86.5% take rate. It appears that the catcher set up on the outside edge of the plate and that Gallen missed armside. Gallen could have targeted a location further over the plate and missing in the same way would have still yielded a negative run value pitch.

Gallen goes back to the four-seamer (FF), throwing this one down the middle in the 2-1 count. Throwing a CH previously is enough to make even this middle-middle FF have a negative run value against Carter. This FF location has a nearly 3-in-4 strike likelihood which is helped by the high 24.4% foul rate. And while there's a 26.5% chance this ball gets put in play, the damage is limited by a 7.7% probability that he gets under the ball.

This 2-2 four-seam fastball (FF) is located in the shadow zone low and outside where the ball-strike call is more equivocal. That combined with Carter taking this pitch more often than not and the 13.3% swing-and-miss rate results in a strikeout probability of 48.2%. The potential damage of this pitch is limited with minimal hard contact likelihood (X%), a decent chance he tops the ball (7.6%), and a fairly typical foul ball proclivity (14.9%).

The final pitch of this plate appearance is another 2-2 four-seam fastball (FF) where Gallen misses over the plate relative to Moreno's setup further outside. With a 32.9% likelihood that this ball gets put in play along with a high 12.1% barrel rate when he puts it in play, it's no surprise that Carter pulled a hard line drive to the right-center field fence.

This first-pitch changeup (CH) is a safe opening pitch that doesn't give Marte an opportunity to do damage where a ball in play can score multiple runs. There's a 15% swing probability but less than a 1-in-100 chance of a ball in play.

The 1-0 pitch is a sinker (SI) that hits the outside edge of the zone. The 70.1% likelihood of earning a strike on this pitch leads to a top decile (10%) expected negative run value.

This 1-1 changeup (CH) low is a quality pitch, but up in the zone would have been a better location. Another good option for this situation would have been a CU. But as the pitch was thrown, there's a 1-in-4 likelihood of a ball in play with a 1-in-10 shot of a ground ball. This pitch in fact resulted in a ground ball up the middle, which drove in two runs and extended Arizona's lead.

The first pitch is a sinker (SI) low and outside that attempts to steal a strike. As the 37% swing probability and 11% ball-in-play likelihood suggest, Seager takes this for a ball.

The 1-0 pitch is also a sinker (SI) but low and inside this time and just touches the edge of the zone. While the swing-and-miss probability for this pitch is a high 24.9% makes this a negative run value pitch, the swing and ball-in-play likelihoods are similar to the first pitch at 49% and 10% respectively. Seager takes here again but for a called strike this time.

This 1-1 changeup (CH) low gets Seager out in front, and he fouls it off the end of his bat. The negative run value for this pitch comes in large part from the very high 28.1% swing-and-miss rate, but the 6.8% chance of the ball being topped also contributes.

Seager is unlikely to chase on this 1-2 four-seamer (FF) with a 28.6% chance of a swing that contributes to a low strikeout probability of 9.5%. Seager leaves this pitch alone.

While this 2-2 changeup (CH) arrives at a similar location as the previous pitch, this time the metrics are very different. The odds of a swing here are nearly 3 in 4, but the strikeout probability remains fairly suppressed at 14%. While there was a healthy chance that this ball would be put in play, Seager fouls this off, something we predict to occur one quarter of the time.

Once again Kelly throws a different pitch type to a similar location, this time a cutter (FC). He gets the swing and miss here which we anticipate would happen 11.2% of the time. This was a risky pitch though with a 4.8% likelihood of a barrel and a combined 7.1% chance of a hard line or hard fly ball. Had he thrown a cutter low and on the inside half of the plate, he would have elevated the strikeout chance to 66.3%.